Don’t Cry For Me Alberto Fernández

Argentina’s political theatre is spectacular – made famous to the outside world by Eva and Juan Perón, the political stage continues to be cast with drama. This week brought plenty of melodrama when the ruling coalition suffered a huge defeat – winning just six provinces, in what is an important temperature check for the upcoming midterms. Infobae’s comparison to the 2019 general election primaries is striking, with Todos blue replaced by Junto yellow across the country.

Source: Infobae

During the last election, I visited Buenos Aires twice and with thanks to the Race to Casa Rosada, I became hooked on Argentine politics. Unfortunately, becoming hooked is not enough to truly understand the race to the congreso. To help us wrap our heads around this extraordinary outcome, I sat down with Patricio Giusto, Executive Director of Diagnóstico Político consultancy group and Associate Professor at Catholic University of Argentina.

Muchas gracias Patricio for chatting to me about the recent elecciones in Argentina! For people who are unfamiliar with Argentina's electoral system, could you please explain what these elections were for?

There were primary elections in Argentina to choose the candidates for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, who will compete in the mid-term general election, scheduled for November 14. On that day, half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate will be renewed. In both the primaries and the general elections, voting is mandatory for all citizens between 18 and 70 years of age. Likewise, the primaries are compulsory for all the political parties as well. To be able to compete in the general election, the parties need to obtain at least 1.5% of the votes. This primary system has been in force since 2009 in Argentina. It is a very positive system, because it makes it possible to democratize and promote internal competition within the parties. It also facilitates the consolidation of electoral coalitions.

The coalition of the existing President, Alberto Fernández, was wiped out across the country winning just seven small provinces. What does this mean, and why is it significant?

The defeat suffered by the national government was the worst historical result of the "Peronism" (the most important political movement in Argentina, founded by Juan Domingo Perón back in 1945). The poor electoral performance of the government was somehow to be expected, due to the disastrous economic situation, the very poor management of the pandemic, and the numerous corruption scandals. But nobody expected such a defeat, with the government losing unexpectedly in key districts, such as the province of Buenos Aires (40% of the country's population). The defeat is more shocking for the government if one takes into account that all the Peronism was united in the same coalition. That unity had precisely been the key to defeating the center-right led by Mauricio Macri in 2019, who could not achieve his reelection, despite obtaining 41% of the votes. Fernández had obtained 48% to be elected president.

Why did this happen? What caused such a loss for Frente de Todos / win for Juntos por el Cambio? 

The causes of the electoral defeat are clear: The disastrous economic situation, only getting worse every day, due to the very poor management of Fernández administration. On the other hand, the discretionary distribution of vaccines between officials and their relatives and friends had a notable impact, as well as the parties held in the presidential residence, when all Argentine citizens were subjected to strict confinement measures due to the pandemic. The president himself was part of those parties. The dissemination of the parties’ pictures and videos in the press was a devastating blow to Fernández’s prestige and authority, already affected by the very poor economic and health management.

Since the result, the Kirchnerists (is that the right word?) have threatened to split from Fernández's coalition. What does this mean? 

At this moment Argentina is going through a serious institutional crisis, since Vice President Cristina Kirchner, the most powerful figure in the government, wants Alberto Fernández to expel key figures from his cabinet, in order to reset the administration. But President Fernández has so far resisted, situation that led to a public confrontation between the president and his VP. There is fear in the citizens and in the markets that this could pave the way to a greater radicalization of the government, if Cristina Kirchner effectively achieves her goal to take over the presidential cabinet.

Is this result a barometer for the next Presidential election? If so, why? If not, why not?

Two years is an eternity in Argentine politics. And many things can change in that period. For the opposition, there is a long way to go and caution must prevail, since the public expressed, above all, an anti-government vote in this election. In a presidential election, with these same opposition candidates, the result would most likely be quite different. 1 - There were primary elections in Argentina to choose the candidates for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, who will compete in the mid-term general election, scheduled for November 14. On that day, half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate will be renewed. In both the primaries and the general elections, voting is mandatory for all citizens between 18 and 70 years of age. Likewise, the primaries are compulsory for all the political parties as well. To be able to compete in the general election, the parties need to obtain at least 1.5% of the votes. This primary system has been in force since 2009 in Argentina. It is a very positive system, because it makes it possible to democratize and promote internal competition within the parties. It also facilitates the consolidation of electoral coalitions.

Understand Argentine politics now? Me neither! But Patricio definitely helps us to these recent elections and also understand how Argentine political processes actually contribute to a healthy democracy. If you are interested to learn more Congreso and the Casa Rosada, watch our interview with Diputada Camila Crescimbeni in English or Diputada Gisela Scaglia en Español.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Australia-Latam Emerging Leaders Dialogue.