An Uncertain Climate for Colombian Coffee and Australian Wheat

Climate change is a global threat, not only from an environmental standpoint, but also socially and economically. It will strongly impact a variety of sectors, including agriculture, in which Colombian coffee and Australian wheat production are particularly vulnerable. Colombia is the world’s largest producer of washed Arabica, while Australia accounts for 10% of global wheat exports. Anthropogenic climate change will impact their availability and prices. This will have flow-on effects on national economies, social inequalities, food security, and the livelihoods of communities dependent on these industries. 

Colombian coffee faces the heat

Coffee plantations are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall variation. To produce coffee, conditions need to be appropriate for flowering. After flowers are pollinated, the resulting fruit are processed to extract coffee seeds, which are dried and sold to consumers. Higher temperatures––expected from climate change––have been found to reduce the number of flowers in coffee plants, and consequently, the number of fruit and seeds. 

Moreover, climate change is expected to impact water availability, causing prolonged dry seasonality and stronger precipitation in shorter periods. Research has shown that the likelihood of non-flowering significantly increases if coffee plantations are exposed to drought or water stress. Whereas an increase in humidity can stimulate the emergence of pests and diseases, such as coffee leaf rust. The consequences of the climate crisis on coffee production have a cascade effect on communities and the national economy. Some of these repercussions are already being faced and will likely become intensified due to the lag time of warming effects from accumulated greenhouse gases. 

In Colombia, coffee crops provide income for around 563,000 families and create over 726,000 rural jobs. As a result, the impacts of climate change would disproportionately affect people in rural areas and reduce the production of around 888 million sacks of green coffee, representing 1% of national and 11.6% of agricultural GDP. In 2019, it was estimated that 2.2 million people from 600 municipalities financially rely on coffee production. Nearly all Colombian coffee growers are small-holding farmers, so the consequences of climate change will directly impact peasant communities and their small-scale economies. Hence, climate change has the potential to lower national and household incomes which would worsen both rural inequality and broader economic outcomes in Colombia.

The National Federation of Coffee Growers, an association of 500,000 coffee producers and one of Colombia’s largest businesses, estimates that in 2019 alone, around 380,000 rural coffee producers benefited from improvements in basic sanitation, households, schools, and tertiary roads as a result of coffee production. 

Further, the famous Juan Valdez coffee shops, supplied by small-scale coffee production, provide fair work conditions to 2,058 people, of which 66% are women. In recent years, the proportion of women in the coffee industry has grown. As a consequence, the reduction in coffee production will impact not only the whole supply chain, including shop workers, but also women's empowerment.

Vegemite but no toast? 

Australian wheat production is being affected by hotter and drier weather, alongside an increased frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Wheat yields will reduce with rising temperatures that are expected to increase by 2-3°C across the Australian Wheatbelt. Increased night temperatures have decreased grain yield by 7% per degree during the critical flowering period, which is being shortened each year. Higher temperatures will also create more favourable conditions for many weeds, diseases, and insects, further impeding cultivation. Moreover, rainfall declines are expected across the continent’s wheat-growing regions. The Wheatbelt alone has seen a decline by 20% over the past 120 years and will likely steadily decrease by another 10% by 2070. 

Droughts and other extreme climatic events are likely to become more frequent. Extreme heat waves can potentially cause yield reductions of 5% per day. In 2018, heat stress damage on Australian wheat was estimated to cause a loss of $1.1 billion per year. Alongside these economic effects, wheat is also expected to decrease in nutritional value as the interaction between higher temperatures and increased carbon dioxide reduces nitrogen and protein content.

The Australian agricultural industry and its related sectors comprise 12% of the Commonwealth’s total GDP, earning $155 billion per year. The impacts of climate change on this industry will affect global food security and likely result in significant economic losses. In fact, under current trends, irrigated agriculture will not be possible throughout large sections of the Murray-Darling basin by the end of this century.

Growing demands with decreasing supplies 

Maintaining food security under a changing climate will be an important challenge for the 21st century. As the world’s most widely grown crop, global demands for wheat have doubled since 1980, increasing at a higher rate in developing countries. Likewise, global coffee demands are expected to increase by 26% in the next decade. 

Growing demands with diminished yields may culminate in higher costs for coffee and wheat-based products, which can cause flow-on effects. Price surges of staple foods have the potential to impact political stability worldwide. For example, shortened grain supplies in the early 2010’s WANA region have been claimed to exacerbate pre-existing civil unrest, contributing to the Arab Spring uprisings. Moreover, changing climatic patterns are likely to render 50% of Latin America’s coffee-growing regions unsuitable for Arabica production, placing vulnerability on those dependent on the 15 billion-dollar commodity chain. This is likely to result in higher fluctuations in the already highly volatile nature of global coffee prices.

As staple foods, the ability to meet global demands for coffee and wheat is not only important socially and economically but also for future world stability. Without adequate climate change mitigation and agricultural adaptation, it will be uncertain whether Colombia and Australia can continue to sufficiently meet these demands. 

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Australia-Latam Emerging Leaders Dialogue.