Uruguay's 2024 Election: A Nation at a Political Crossroad
This year has seen several significant changes in Latin America’s political landscape. Javier Milei won Argentina’s presidential elections in late 2023, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum was sworn in as president this past October 1st, and Nayib Bukele from El Salvador controversially won reelection with 84 per cent of the vote. The region has sparked conversations and debates over political change, with Uruguay to follow.
On October 27 2024, an expected 2.8 million Uruguyans will be casting votes for their new president - alongside two plebiscites being held concurrently. To win elections, a presidential candidate needs an absolute majority of votes (51 per cent). Otherwise, run-off elections between the top two candidates will be held on November 24. A run-off is considered likely, given narrowing margins. Elections in 2019 saw current President Luis Lacalle Pou win during run-off elections by 37,000 votes.
Looking to replace current President Lacalle of the National Party, there are three main candidates in contention.
Uruguay’s top three presidential candidates. Image credit: El País.
Yamandú Orsi: from the left-wing Frente Amplio coalition
Orsi is currently leading polls with 43 per cent of voter support.
The Frente Amplio coalition has been a strong contender during these elections. Two presidents between 2005 to 2020 have been Frente Amplio members, losing their consecutive hold in 2019. As a majority of left leaning actors are part of the coalition, there is some cohesion in Uruguay’s left-wing political arena. They have been supporters of the social security referendums looking to change the pension system, and focus on social issues - reflected in Orsi’s campaign slogan, “tiempos de esperanza, tiempos de la gente” (time for hope, time for the people).
Orsi has been criticised by Álvaro Delgado for tactful responses when asked about Maduro’s Venezuela. Orsi claims that Maduro’s regime is “totalmente distinto” (totally distinct) to other dictatorships previously seen in Latin America and that calling Venezuela a dictatorship would be an oversimplification.
Álvaro Delgado: from the centre-right-wing National Party
Second in the polls with 23 per cent of voter support and endorsed by President Lacalle.
Delgado’s campaign has focused on building off the backs of the current administration, with slogans encouraging voters to re-elect the National Party - “reeligí un buen gobierno” (I reelected a good government). As right-wing and centrist parties in Uruguay do not have a unified coalition like Frente Amplio, there is much more fragmentation and disagreement on policy.
Delgado has been staunchly against the social security plebiscite and asserted against Maduro - si hay exiliados, si se violan los derechos humanos, si hay encarcelamientos sin procesos judiciales y si hay fraudes electorales, no tiene dos nombres (if there are exiles, if human rights are violated, if there are prisoners without due judicial process, and if there is election fraud, it does not have two names).
Andrés Ojeda: from the centrist Colorado Party
Criminal lawyer and media personality, Ojeda is third in polling with 15 per cent of voter support. Support for Ojeda has grown amongst undecided voters.
Ojeda has been seen as a figure of generational change. With the slogan, “la renovación avanza” (“renovation advances”). Ojeda’s campaign has focused on Uruguay’s future development. His campaign manifesto aims for: “desarrollo social, productivo, y económico” (“social, productive, and economic development”).
Ojeda emphasises a realistic and sustainable pathway to a better Uruguay, reinforcing the importance of strengthening democracy, the economy, and global positioning.
Polling figures currently show 10 per cent of voters are undecided and 5 per cent intend to cast blanks.
The Unnamed Candidate
Politically disregarded factors influencing Uruguay’s elections exist. Coined the “unnamed candidate” (“candidato sin nombre”) is a plebiscite that seeks to enact a referendum overhauling Uruguay’s pension system. The referendum looks to: drop the retirement age from 65 to 60, nationalise all private pension funds, and raise the minimum pension to the value of the minimum wage. All three sub-propositions of the plebiscite are bound together, meaning voters can only cast one singular vote regarding the referendum.
The controversial pension plebiscite has been highly criticised and considered fiscally unsustainable by the current administration and most political parties. Petitions from labour unions encouraging a yes vote have been successful and have received support from Orsi and Frente Amplio. With the popularity of pension reform amongst voters, the Uruguayan peso has dropped 10 per cent against the US dollar since April 2024.
The nationalisation of private pension funds would essentially create a state monopoly over the social security system. Both Ojeda and Delgado raised concerns regarding the fiscal impact that could incur to Uruguay’s already struggling post-pandemic economy, the cost extended onto Uruguayan taxpayers, and socio-political concerns over allowing the state to monopolise pensions.
As Uruguay’s memory of arduously re-democratising was as recent as 1984, centrist and right-wing political actors are wearily conscious of maintaining and strengthening democracy alongside its checks and balances. However, polling from September shows the majority of Uruguayan voters are in favour of the plebiscite: 51 per cent of voters in favour, 42 per cent against - an increase from August polling numbers showing 35 per cent against - and 7 per cent undecided.
Retirement Fund and Bank Pensions. Image Credit: El País Uruguay
A second plebiscite is looking to overturn Article 11 of the Uruguayan constitution which holds a ban on police conducting nighttime raids. A referendum that is likely to pass, with two-thirds of voters in favour. Insecurity is the top issue voters are concerned about, with unemployment not far behind. Orsi and Frente Amplio oppose the referendum through claims that nighttime raids are ineffective solutions to increasing public security and point to, “lo que pasa en otros países” (what happens in other countries) as evidence that nighttime raids can increase violence and destabilise democracy.
Plebiscite voting forms. Image Credit: Nicolás Pereyra via El País Uruguay.
With contentious plebiscites and significant socio-economic concerns, there are many issues voters need to consider for these upcoming elections. The passing of plebiscites that will nationalise pensions and empower the military to enact night raids can contribute to the destabilisation of Uruguay’s democracy, making the decision of who to elect into government even heavier. Margins are closing and stabilising, while all three candidates are becoming more active in their campaigns discussing paramount considerations.
Content Disclaimer
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Australia Latam Emerging Leaders Dialogue.