The Future of Cuba: The Beginning of a New Era?

Photo by Yerson Olivares on Unsplash

In 2018, Cuba swore in President Miguel Díaz-Canel, later made the First Secretary of the Partido Comunista de Cuba / Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) in April 2021 – ending the Castro family’s 60-year hold on Cuba. The PCC leads the one-party authoritarian Marxist–Leninist regime in Cuba, oppressing and prohibiting any political opposition. A non-Castro presidency has created deep uncertainties for the nation due to the ambiguity surrounding a Cuba without the Castro family in a position of power and influence, coupled with a continuously changing relationship with the United States (US) and the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The year 1959 saw Fidel Castro declared as Cuba's President and First Secretary of the PCC after the guerrilla leader led the Cuban Revolution, forcing the then-dictator, Fulgencio Batista, into exile. The revolutionary-turned-politician remained the state's leader until 2008, when he left the role due to declining health issues and, in 2016, passed away. Fidel is one of the longest-serving presidents globally and one of the most important political figures to emerge from contemporary Latin America. As a revolutionary, Fidel was inspired by sociologist and theorist Karl Marx and the Cuban anti-imperialist, José Martí. His legacy is associated with free healthcare, a 99.7% literacy rate, the nationalisation of the Cuban economy and chronic food shortages. 

As a result of introducing socialist policies in the context of the Cold War, the US developed a trade embargo on Cuba formalised by President John F. Kennedy in 1962.  The Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, Lestor Mallory wrote the memorandum in 1960, in which he explained the government’s intentions to create effective opposition against Fidel. The only way to do so was ‘through disenchantment and disaffection based on economic dissatisfaction and hardship,’ these actions were to restrict ‘money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, to bring about hunger, desperation, and the overthrow of [the] government.’ 

Cubans gradually began to move away from the Fidel era as his brother and fellow revolutionary leader, Raúl Castro, served as President from 2008-2018  and remained First Secretary until April 2021. Raúl left the leadership positions on his terms, announcing his resignation three years prior. During his time in power, he developed economic and political reforms to create significant changes to Cuba, as a result of the country’s international and domestic pressures and deeply-rooted internal social and economic issues derived from Fidel’s economic policies and the US embargo. As such, Raúl oversaw historical changes in Cuban foreign and domestic policies as he began to dismantle many socialist characteristics Fidel had defended for so long. Domestically, he overturned the public rejection of globalisation, foreign investment, and the private market by devising the Economic Modernisation Plan of 2010 to boost economic growth and increase public support. Internationally, he transformed Cuba's estranged relationship with the US – most significantly during President Barack Obama's term from 2009-2017. The Obama administration saw the trade embargo as ‘outdated’ and ‘[failing] to advance US interests’ and thus took executive action to ease travel and trade restrictions. 

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From a young age, Díaz-Canel showed his loyalty to the PCC and developed a strong relationship with the party’s leaders, including the Castro brothers. Thus far, Díaz-Canel has remained relevantly reserved on numerous issues throughout his first four years of Presidency - although, in 2018, he told reporters that he ‘[believes] continuity’ and thinks ‘there will always be continuity’.  

Díaz-Canel began his Presidency as the then-US President Donald Trump reversed Obama's open engagement policy with Cuba. Trump reimposed the trade embargo and implemented new restrictions. Fast-forward to today, it appears that current US President, Joe Biden, is treading between President Obama's engagement with Cuba and Trump's isolationist measures. The Biden Administration continues to uphold the trade embargo on Cuba. 

The trade embargo on Cuba has significantly affected the flow of food, medicine, and medical equipment from reaching Cubans. Ultimately, this has deeply affected how the Cuban medical system can respond to COVID-19, resulting in the loss of thousands of lives. Despite the challenges, Cuba acquired a 90 percent vaccination rate, due to Cuba’s production of its own vaccines. 

Photo by Dorothea OLDANI on Unsplash

A critical moment in Díaz-Canel's Presidency was 11th July 2021, Cuba's largest anti-government protests (J11) since the early 1960s - producing a defining moment in contemporary Cuba. The protests expressed the people's discontent with the Cuban Government as they demanded change, not continuity of the Castro era. The continuous economic vulnerabilities have been made more profound due to COVID-19. The protests resulted in hundreds of arrests and, sadly, one death over two days. An additional protest was planned for the 15th November 2021; however, the state denied its opponents permission to hold the protest on the grounds it is part of efforts to overthrow the government, according to the letter handed to organisers. This is the first time in recent Cuban history that these issues translated into political demands for reform and regime change. 

Social media played a significant role in the depth of the protests, as Cubans, both domestically and abroad, could transmit their grievances more easily across the world and elevated the #SOSCuba campaign. Under Fidel, the government implemented censorship and restricted access to information, which Raúl later reversed and developed greater internet connectivity. This campaign caused the Díaz-Canel government to block access to the internet to halt the spread of information. In order to ease tensions from the protests, the government authorised duty-free importation of food and medicine, and legalised micro-enterprises. 

Many questions surround this new era - will the unknown of Cuba's dynamic without the Castro family in power lead to structural changes? The move to Díaz-Canel could be seen as a shift in another direction for Cuba, as it begins this new era of transition, although further deep-rooted issues within Cuba have seen a rise in the public's discontent. Díaz-Canel's historically strong ties to the PCC's objectives remain - which may win him votes from Castro sympathisers. However, if Díaz-Canel wants to persuade the general public, he urgently needs to create profound change and significant reform. There needs to be a clear and open dialogue between the people of Cuba and the government surrounding what change is necessary to overcome its critical economic, social, political, and health challenges.  

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Australia-Latam Emerging Leaders Dialogue.