Claudia Sheinbaum’s Careful Balancing Act as the next President of Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum during the presidential campaign. Image credit: Wotancito via Wikimedia Commons.
At the beginning of June, Claudia Sheinbaum made history by becoming the first woman to be elected president in Mexico - or any North or Central American country. Sheinbaum enjoyed a resounding 30-point victory over the opposition coalition. Her victory represents a sharp break from Mexico’s historically masculine-dominated political culture, ushering in a new era in which two of the three major parties are helmed by women.
Sheinbaum has a strong background in academia, completing a PhD in energy engineering and studying her thesis at the illustrious Berkeley Laboratory in California, where she analysed the use of clean energy in the Mexican transportation sector. Sheinbaum made her entrance into the political arena in 2000, when she was appointed environmental secretary of Mexico City by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (ALMO), who was the Head of Government at the time. She then joined the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an intergovernmental body of the United Nations, where she and her team won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for their report on climate change.
Adding another notch to her belt in 2013, she rose to become the lead author for a section in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Sheinbaum began her history-making tendency in 2015 when she became the first woman to be elected to the head of the Tlalpan district of Mexico City, where she remained until 2017. After this, she ascended to the head of the government of Mexico City - again the first woman to hold this office. Sheinbaum held this position until mid-2023, when she entered the presidential race.
Sheinbaum faces a difficult road ahead. In a presidential campaign marred by unprecedented political violence, her response to crime will be a pivotal policy decision. Crime is a chronic, unresolved issue that plagues Mexico and has been arguably neglected by all predecessors. ALMO faced harsh criticism for his passivepolicy towards organised crime and his focus on addressing the socioeconomic roots of the vicious crime cycle rather than direct law enforcement crackdowns. While ALMO’s government took credit for the marginal decrease in the murder rate, critics allege that police have been coaxing numbers by misreporting deaths. The tactics used by Nayib Bukele’s extreme policy towards organised crime, and now backed by Argentina's Javier Milei, points to potential inspiration that Sheinbaum may follow. During the campaign, Sheinbaum alluded to following the same social benefits programs that ALMO introduced to tackle the dilemma from the bottom up but has yet to present a clear strategy to govern a country with rampant political violence. During the recent election dozens of candidates were assassinated, making it troubling that Sheinbaum presents no innovative ideas to combat crime. Previously, as mayor of Mexico City, she provided fresh methods to address the issue, including blanketing the city with CCTV security cameras and drastically increasing police presence in troubled areas. The city’s murder rate halved under her administration. However, policing the capital city is markedly different from more rural areas, where cartels have de-facto rule.
While she has inherited a high approval cultivated by AMLO’s backing and his loyal followers, failure to combat violence may strengthen her opposition. AMLO suffered criticism for his ‘hugs not bullets’ approach, and this mood may snowball against Sheinbaum. In other areas, upholding the public's support will hinge on the success of her commitments made during the campaign; promising further social programs, affordable housing and continued economic progress in solving rampant inequality. Continued strong economic progress nullified many of the criticisms of AMLO’s weak response to crime. One would expect if Sheinbaum can reproduce similar economic achievements then she may sidestep this sharp increase in political violence seen during the election.
Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Image credit: EneasMx via Wikimedia Commons.
Regarding foreign policy, it may prove noteworthy whether Sheinbaum will follow AMLO’s approach of limited foreign policy goals and seldom travelling abroad. ALMO would typically delegate attendance at international summits to other members of his administration. If Sheinbaum were to begin attending them herself it would signal a more balanced approach for foreign policy with domestic issues. Since cooperative internationalist institutions are a faucet of liberal values, being fully committed to and communicating as such with a head of state appearance, would help extinguish claims that Mexico is backsliding on its liberal democratic principles. The first major event that Sheinbaum could attend would be the mid-November G20 summit in Brazil.
Mexico finds itself in the middle of cooling ties between China and the United States, as both economic powerhouses are looking to invest in Mexico. The United States is pursuing a policy to reduce reliance on China by nearshoring manufacturing to Mexico. On the other hand, China has moved parts of its production factories to Mexico in an effort to circumvent United States trade barriers. The two countries had a slight deterioration in relations under AMLO, as he vehemently disagreed with Trump’s anti-migration policy and infamous wall proposal. Eventually, the two leaders agreed to stem the flow of migration through Mexico. When Biden took office, many expected this pressure to curtail migration would end but it did not. During the campaign, Sheinbaum offered no indication of whether she would differ from AMLO’s stances on this matter.
Climate change is another complex issue that Sheinbaum will have to grapple with during her term. AMLO poorly handled climate action policy as he reversed many policies, dismantled institutions and promoted the use of fossil fuel production. Under his administration the environment was a low priority, likely because he needed the continuation of fossil fuels to fund his sweeping welfare programs Sheinbaum however has maintained a proactive stance towards climate policy, involving a 14-billion-dollar green technology investment plan that will promote clean energy and usher in electric public transport services. Sheinbaum’s background as a climate change researcher provides her with unique insight to implement the ambitious policy direction.
Given the urgency of the climate crisis, it will be interesting to see how Sheinbaum balances the use of fossil fuels for immediate benefits of economic growth, with robust climate action policy. If meaningful progress on crime along with strengthening the safety of political candidates is not obtained then Sheinbaum’s current climate action policy proposals may be overhauled. This is because investment into fossil fuels may provide more short-term economic benefits than investments in renewable technology. Economic progress, diminishing inequality, and successfully implemented welfare programs were the backbone of AMLO’s high approval rating, and Sheinbaum may expect similar expectations - and results - if she successfully continues these programs.
Author Bio: Alister Gibson is a third-year International Relations Student at the University of Adelaide and a regular contributor at ALELD. He has a keen interest in political order, history, and philosophy and is currently studying German and Spanish.
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